Exeter City 2–1 Lincoln: Result & Stats

Exeter City

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Lincoln

S. Nombe 73', 33'

P. O'Connor 19'

3/11/2023

League One · Round 36St James Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Exeter City30%

×Draw23%

Lincoln47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Exeter CityExpected goals in this matchLincoln

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.75

Exeter City

1.34

Lincoln

1.75

Lincoln creates 31% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 8 away

1.56

creates per match

1.38

2.12

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Exeter City

1.56

Lincoln

1.38

allows per match

Exeter City

2.12

Lincoln

1.13

-0.29scores less than expected

finishing

+0.25scores more than expected

finishing

Exeter City-0.29scores less

Lincoln+0.25scores more

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Exeter City ↓

Lincoln →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Exeter City or draw

53%

Exeter City or Lincoln

77%

Draw or Lincoln

70%

Winning margin

Exeter City wins by 2+

13%

Lincoln wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Exeter City 1+ goals

74%

Exeter City 2+ goals

39%

Exeter City 3+ goals

15%

Lincoln 1+ goals

83%

Lincoln 2+ goals

52%

Lincoln 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Exeter City (draw refunded)

39%

Lincoln (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Exeter City at home — creates 1.56, concedes 2.12 · 11 matches

Lincoln away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Exeter City attack 1.56 + Lincoln defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.34

Lincoln attack 1.38 + Exeter City defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Exeter City scores more

30%

level

23%

Lincoln scores more

47%

Lincoln at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Lincoln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

E. Erhahon

Lincoln · M

7.9

Match Events

19'

P. O'Connor↳ R. Poole

33'

S. Nombe

46'

J. Blackman← G. Woods

50'

Alex Hartridge

63'

L. Sørensen← M. Virtue-Thick

67'

J. Scott← R. Harper

67'

K. Chauke← J. White

68'

E. Bishop← S. Roughan

69'

Josh Key

72'

Jay Stansfield

73'

S. Nombe↳ D. Mitchell

77'

L. Plange← J. Diamond

77'

O. Shodipo← D. Mândroiu

81'

Paudie O’Connor

85'

Alex Hartridge

85'

Alex Hartridge

86'

J. Grounds← J. Stansfield

88'

Jamal Blackman

88'

Ben House

90+4'

J. Caprice← S. Nombe

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ExeterLincoln

Overview

54%Possession46%

8Total Shots7

4Corners7

14Fouls7

Shots

8Total Shots7

2On Target3

4Off Target4

2Blocked0

6Inside Box4

2Outside Box3

Passing

54%Possession46%

406Total Passes335

297Accurate Passes215

73%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

Discipline

14Fouls7

5Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

0Offsides1

League One: Exeter City 2–1 Lincoln

Exeter City beat Lincoln 2-1 in League One on March 11, 2023.

Goals: P. O'Connor (19'), S. Nombe (33', 73').

Exeter City controlled possession (54%) and registered 8 shots to 7.

The match was played at St James Park in Exeter, Devon.

Exeter City vs Lincoln — League One 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

League One: Exeter City 2–1 Lincoln