Exeter City 0–1 Huddersfield: Result & Stats

Exeter City

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Huddersfield

L. Castledine 28'

9/27/2025

League One · Round 10St James Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Exeter City22%

×Draw20%

Huddersfield58%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Exeter CityExpected goals in this matchHuddersfield

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

2.25

Exeter City

1.31

Huddersfield

2.25

Huddersfield creates 72% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 12 away

1.47

creates per match

1.82

2.68

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Exeter City

1.47

Huddersfield

1.82

allows per match

Exeter City

2.68

Huddersfield

1.16

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

+0.01on par

finishing

Exeter City+0.16scores more

Huddersfield+0.01on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Exeter City ↓

Huddersfield →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–27%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–16%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Exeter City or draw

42%

Exeter City or Huddersfield

80%

Draw or Huddersfield

78%

Winning margin

Exeter City wins by 2+

9%

Huddersfield wins by 2+

36%

Team goals

Exeter City 1+ goals

73%

Exeter City 2+ goals

38%

Exeter City 3+ goals

14%

Huddersfield 1+ goals

89%

Huddersfield 2+ goals

65%

Huddersfield 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

Exeter City (draw refunded)

27%

Huddersfield (draw refunded)

73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Exeter City at home — creates 1.47, concedes 2.68 · 8 matches

Huddersfield away — creates 1.82, concedes 1.16 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Exeter City attack 1.47 + Huddersfield defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.31

Huddersfield attack 1.82 + Exeter City defence 2.68 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Exeter City scores more

22%

level

20%

Huddersfield scores more

58%

Huddersfield at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Huddersfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

R. Roosken

Huddersfield · D

8.3

Match Events

16'

Reece Cole

28'

L. Castledine↳ D. Kasumu

39'

Ilmari Niskanen

53'

Marcus Harness

70'

J. Yfeko← R. Cole

72'

Jack Fitzwater

74'

C. Ashia← M. Harness

81'

E. Turns← P. Sweeney

81'

E. Francis← J. Doyle-Hayes

81'

A. Higgins← D. Andrew

81'

K. Wilson← J. Magennis

82'

J. Taylor← L. Castledine

89'

L. Gooch← B. Wiles

89'

D. Vost← R. Ledson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ExeterHuddersfield

Overview

50%Possession50%

13Total Shots23

5Corners8

15Fouls8

Shots

13Total Shots23

3On Target1

3Off Target12

7Blocked10

9Inside Box17

4Outside Box6

Passing

50%Possession50%

397Total Passes416

301Accurate Passes323

76%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

15Fouls8

3Yellow Cards1

3Offsides1