Exeter City 1–3 Doncaster: Result & Stats

Exeter City

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Doncaster

R. Reid 51' (pen)

J. Marquis 90', 77'

L. Mandeville 72'

11/12/2016

League Two · Round 16St. James' Park (Exeter, Devon)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Exeter City45%

×Draw26%

Doncaster30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Exeter CityExpected goals in this matchDoncaster

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.18

Exeter City

1.50

Doncaster

1.18

Exeter City creates 27% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 73 away

1.58

creates per match

1.38

0.98

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Exeter City

1.58

Doncaster

1.38

allows per match

Exeter City

0.98

Doncaster

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Exeter City+0.00on par

Doncaster+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Exeter City ↓

Doncaster →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Exeter City or draw

70%

Exeter City or Doncaster

74%

Draw or Doncaster

55%

Winning margin

Exeter City wins by 2+

22%

Doncaster wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Exeter City 1+ goals

78%

Exeter City 2+ goals

44%

Exeter City 3+ goals

19%

Doncaster 1+ goals

69%

Doncaster 2+ goals

33%

Doncaster 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Exeter City (draw refunded)

60%

Doncaster (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Exeter City at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.98 · 90 matches

Doncaster away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.42 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Exeter City attack 1.58 + Doncaster defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.50

Doncaster attack 1.38 + Exeter City defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Exeter City scores more

45%

level

26%

Doncaster scores more

30%

Exeter City at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Exeter City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

M. Baudry← A. Butler

51'

R. ReidPenalty

57'

C. Alcock← J. Wright

69'

L. Mandeville← N. Mason

72'

L. Mandeville↳ J. Coppinger

77'

J. Marquis↳ L. Mandeville

78'

R. Simpson← D. Wheeler

83'

M. Jay← R. Reid

90'

J. Marquis

Exeter

Doncaster

13

Maroši

6

▼

Butler

27

Evina

16

Houghton

15

▼

Wright

24

▼

Mason

26

A

10

17

8

9

⚽2

21

3

31

10

16

4

11

▼

Wheeler

25

Taylor

28

Stacey

33

⚽

▼

Reid

14

Watkins

Manager: P. Tisdale

78'▲R. Simpson←▼D. Wheeler

83'▲M. Jay←▼R. Reid

Exeter City substitutes

8Simpson20Jay1Olejnik12Grant19McAlinden23Riley-Lowe39Brown

Manager: D. Ferguson

46'▲M. Baudry←▼A. Butler

57'▲C. Alcock←▼J. Wright

69'▲L. Mandeville←▼N. Mason

Doncaster substitutes

5Baudry2Alcock19Mandeville1Etheridge18Keegan22Longbottom23Beestin