Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Exeter City vs Derby — League One 2018

Exeter City
Exeter City
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Derby
Derby
4/18/2023League OneLeague One · Round 43St James Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Exeter City31%
×Draw28%
Derby41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Exeter City
1.10
Derby
1.30

Derby creates 18% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 46 away

creates per match

Exeter City
1.23
Derby
1.39

allows per match

Exeter City
1.21
Derby
0.98

finishing

Exeter City+0.00on par
Derby+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Exeter City ↓

Derby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Exeter City or draw
59%
Exeter City or Derby
72%
Draw or Derby
69%

Winning margin

Exeter City wins by 2+
12%
Derby wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Exeter City 1+ goals
67%
Exeter City 2+ goals
30%
Exeter City 3+ goals
10%
Derby 1+ goals
73%
Derby 2+ goals
37%
Derby 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Exeter City (draw refunded)
43%
Derby (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Exeter City at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.21 · 92 matches

Derby away — creates 1.39, concedes 0.98 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Exeter City attack 1.23 + Derby defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.10

Derby attack 1.39 + Exeter City defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Exeter City scores more
31%
level
28%
Derby scores more
41%

Derby at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Derby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Exeter City 1–2 Derby

Derby beat Exeter City 2-1 in League One on April 18, 2023.

The match was played at St James Park in Exeter, Devon.