Exeter City 4–4 Crawley Town: Result & Stats

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Exeter CityExpected goals in this matchCrawley Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.15

Exeter City

1.67

Crawley Town

1.15

Exeter City creates 45% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 31 away

1.24

creates per match

1.10

1.19

allows per match

2.10

creates per match

Exeter City

1.24

Crawley Town

1.10

allows per match

Exeter City

1.19

Crawley Town

2.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Exeter City+0.00on par

Crawley Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Exeter City ↓

Crawley Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Exeter City or draw

74%

Exeter City or Crawley Town

76%

Draw or Crawley Town

51%

Winning margin

Exeter City wins by 2+

26%

Crawley Town wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Exeter City 1+ goals

81%

Exeter City 2+ goals

50%

Exeter City 3+ goals

23%

Crawley Town 1+ goals

68%

Crawley Town 2+ goals

32%

Crawley Town 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Exeter City (draw refunded)

65%

Crawley Town (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Exeter City at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.19 · 95 matches

Crawley Town away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.10 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Exeter City attack 1.24 + Crawley Town defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.67

Crawley Town attack 1.10 + Exeter City defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Exeter City scores more

49%

level

24%

Crawley Town scores more

26%

Exeter City at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Exeter City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

D. Mitchell

Exeter City · M

8.9

Match Events

15'

20'

28'

35'

37'

42'

45+1'

Junior Quitirna↳ W. Swan

46'

J. Magennis← J. Fitzwater

46'

C. Watts← I. Niskanen

46'

D. Mitchell← K. Doyle

49'

Caleb Watts

59'

J. Mukena← Junior Quitirna

59'

T. John-Jules← T. Showunmi

60'

V. Harper↳ D. Mitchell

65'

Bradley Ibrahim

74'

P. Jones← J. Richards

77'

R. Hepburn-Murphy← W. Swan

78'

Toby Mullarkey

82'

R. Woods

84'

J. Roles← M. Anderson

89'

Millenic Alli

90+3'

D. Mitchell↳ J. McMillan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ExeterCrawley

Overview

57%Possession43%

18Total Shots11

6Corners3

12Fouls15

Shots

18Total Shots11

7On Target5

6Off Target5

5Blocked1

12Inside Box8

6Outside Box3

Passing

57%Possession43%

439Total Passes353

364Accurate Passes272

83%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls15

3Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0