Exeter City 1–0 Cheltenham: Result & Stats

Exeter City

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Cheltenham

C. Watts 68'

9/16/2023

League One · Round 8St James Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Exeter City45%

×Draw26%

Cheltenham29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Exeter CityExpected goals in this matchCheltenham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.10

Exeter City

1.46

Cheltenham

1.10

Exeter City creates 33% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 69 away

1.24

creates per match

1.01

1.19

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Exeter City

1.24

Cheltenham

1.01

allows per match

Exeter City

1.19

Cheltenham

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Exeter City+0.00on par

Cheltenham+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Exeter City ↓

Cheltenham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Exeter City or draw

71%

Exeter City or Cheltenham

74%

Draw or Cheltenham

55%

Winning margin

Exeter City wins by 2+

22%

Cheltenham wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Exeter City 1+ goals

77%

Exeter City 2+ goals

43%

Exeter City 3+ goals

18%

Cheltenham 1+ goals

67%

Cheltenham 2+ goals

30%

Cheltenham 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Exeter City (draw refunded)

61%

Cheltenham (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Exeter City at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.19 · 95 matches

Cheltenham away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.67 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Exeter City attack 1.24 + Cheltenham defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.46

Cheltenham attack 1.01 + Exeter City defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Exeter City scores more

45%

level

26%

Cheltenham scores more

29%

Exeter City at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Exeter City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

P. Sweeney

Exeter City · D

7.9

Match Events

18'

Ben Williams

38'

Yanic Wildschut

46'

E. Bonds← E. Chapman

59'

C. Watts← Y. Wildschut

59'

K. Taylor← Z. Jules

61'

Josh Williams

68'

C. Watts

70'

J. Scott← S. Cox

70'

A. Keena← J. Malcolm

70'

J. Olayinka← J. Williams

75'

James Scott

78'

N. Butler-Oyedeji← B. Williams

87'

Tom Carroll

87'

C. Peupion← L. Sercombe

90'

Pedro Borges← R. Cole

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ExeterCheltenham

Overview

63%Possession37%

20Total Shots9

8Corners2

11Fouls9

Shots

20Total Shots9

7On Target2

5Off Target5

8Blocked2

12Inside Box8

8Outside Box1

Passing

63%Possession37%

609Total Passes346

509Accurate Passes251

84%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

11Fouls9

3Yellow Cards2

2Offsides0