Exeter City 0–1 Bury: Result & Stats | League Two

Exeter City

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Bury

N. Maynard 66'

2/16/2019

League Two · Round 33St James Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Exeter City32%

×Draw30%

Bury38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Exeter CityExpected goals in this matchBury

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.97

1.08

Exeter City

0.97

Bury

1.08

Bury creates 11% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 5 away

1.53

creates per match

1.20

0.96

allows per match

0.40

creates per match

Exeter City

1.53

Bury

1.20

allows per match

Exeter City

0.96

Bury

0.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Exeter City+0.00on par

Bury+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Exeter City ↓

Bury →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–114%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Exeter City or draw

62%

Exeter City or Bury

70%

Draw or Bury

68%

Winning margin

Exeter City wins by 2+

12%

Bury wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Exeter City 1+ goals

62%

Exeter City 2+ goals

25%

Exeter City 3+ goals

7%

Bury 1+ goals

66%

Bury 2+ goals

29%

Bury 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Exeter City (draw refunded)

46%

Bury (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Exeter City at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.96 · 98 matches

Bury away — creates 1.20, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Exeter City attack 1.53 + Bury defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.97

Bury attack 1.20 + Exeter City defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Exeter City scores more

32%

level

30%

Bury scores more

38%

Bury at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Bury will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

Scott Wharton

45'

Jake Taylor

46'

C. Stokes← S. Wharton

66'

N. Maynard

74'

K. Wilson← L. Holmes

74'

D. Telford← N. Maynard

80'

D. Wilson← C. Woodman

82'

E. O'Connell← J. Rossiter

89'

Joe Murphy

90'

Dean Moxey

90'

Nicky Adams

Exeter

Bury

1

Murphy

5

Thompson

19

▼

26

7

10

4

11

▼

Rossiter

36

⚽

▼

15

21

1

3

▼

21

2

4

8

10

▼

25

27

12

11

Manager: M. Taylor

74'▲K. Wilson←▼L. Holmes

80'▲D. Wilson←▼C. Woodman

Exeter City substitutes

20Wilson19Wilson5Martin13Hamon17Jay28Brown41Dean

Manager: R. Lowe

46'▲C. Stokes←▼S. Wharton

74'▲D. Telford←▼N. Maynard

82'▲E. O'Connell←▼J. Rossiter

Bury substitutes

3Stokes18Telford6O'Connell16Cooney31Danns32Lavery43Maloney