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Exeter City vs Barnet — League Two 2018

Exeter City
Exeter City
Preview
18:45
Barnet
Barnet
9/1/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 4St James Park
Big match
46%
Exeter City
model favours
46%26%28%

Barnet are unbeaten in 5 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
under 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Exeter City46%
×Draw26%
Barnet28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Exeter City
1.50
Barnet
1.11

Exeter City creates 35% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 62 away

creates per match

Exeter City
1.53
Barnet
1.27

allows per match

Exeter City
0.96
Barnet
1.47

finishing

Exeter City+0.00on par
Barnet+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Exeter City ↓

Barnet →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Exeter City or draw
72%
Exeter City or Barnet
74%
Draw or Barnet
54%

Winning margin

Exeter City wins by 2+
23%
Barnet wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Exeter City 1+ goals
78%
Exeter City 2+ goals
44%
Exeter City 3+ goals
19%
Barnet 1+ goals
67%
Barnet 2+ goals
30%
Barnet 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Exeter City (draw refunded)
62%
Barnet (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Exeter City at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.96 · 98 matches

Barnet away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.47 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Exeter City attack 1.53 + Barnet defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.50

Barnet attack 1.27 + Exeter City defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Exeter City scores more
46%
level
26%
Barnet scores more
28%

Exeter City at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Exeter City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 80% of Barnet’s matches
  • Barnet score first in only 30% of matches
  • Barnet have scored in 7 games running
  • Both teams scored in 8 of the last 9 meetings
  • Their last 9 meetings averaged 3.7 goals
  • 70% of Barnet’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Exeter City
Balanced
Barnet
Possession-dominant
51%Possession55%
63%Pass accuracy68%
11.9ShotsBiggest gap13.7
—xG1.72
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Exeter CityBarnet

Head-to-head

9 previous meetings

6
Exeter City
2
Draws
1
Barnet
Avg goals: 3.7BTTS: 89%
5–32–12–12–14–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
City
LLDDD
Barnet
DDWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Exeter City host Barnet

September 1, 2026: Exeter City take on Barnet in League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Exeter City host Barnet at St James Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.