Exeter City 5–3 Barnet: Result & Stats | League #45

Exeter City

FT

5 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Barnet

K. Doyle 1 90+11'

J. Bird 90+6'

J. Magennis 85' (pen), 76' (pen), 13'

N. Kabamba 78'

Z. Brunt 59'

R. Glover 39'

11/2/2024

League #45 · 1st RoundSt James Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Exeter City62%

×Draw18%

Barnet20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Exeter CityExpected goals in this matchBarnet

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.58

1.42

Exeter City

2.58

Barnet

1.42

Exeter City creates 82% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

3.00

creates per match

1.17

1.67

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

Exeter City

3.00

Barnet

1.17

allows per match

Exeter City

1.67

Barnet

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Exeter City+0.00on par

Barnet+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Exeter City ↓

Barnet →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–18%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Exeter City or draw

80%

Exeter City or Barnet

82%

Draw or Barnet

38%

Winning margin

Exeter City wins by 2+

41%

Barnet wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Exeter City 1+ goals

92%

Exeter City 2+ goals

72%

Exeter City 3+ goals

47%

Barnet 1+ goals

76%

Barnet 2+ goals

41%

Barnet 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Exeter City (draw refunded)

76%

Barnet (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Exeter City at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Barnet away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Exeter City attack 3.00 + Barnet defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.58

Barnet attack 1.17 + Exeter City defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Exeter City scores more

62%

level

18%

Barnet scores more

20%

Exeter City at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Exeter City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

J. Magennis↳ J. Aitchison

39'

46'

49'

59'

63'

K. Doyle← J. Aitchison

63'

E. Francis← R. Cole

67'

Idris Kanu

73'

J. Bird← M. Alli

73'

D. Mitchell← B. Purrington

76'

J. MagennisPenalty

78'

N. Kabamba↳ R. Glover

85'

Ryan Glover

85'

Ben Coker

85'

J. MagennisPenalty

86'

J. Cropper← Z. Brunt

90+4'

Bailey Hobson

90+9'

J. Fitzwater← R. Woods

90+3'

J. Okimo← R. Glover

90+10'

J. Grimwood← B. Coker

90+6'

J. Bird↳ K. Doyle

90+11'

K. Doyle 1

Exeter3-4-1-2

Barnet3-4-3

15

⚽A

▼

Glover

9

⚽

Kabamba

17

⚽

▼

Brunt

3

▼

Coker

18

Hartigan

33

A

11

26

22

5

▼

Rye

1

Hayes

1

Whitworth

3

▼

4

26

14

6

▼

Woods

12

▼

Cole

2

McMillan

10

A

▼

Aitchison

27

⚽3

Magennis

11

▼

Alli

Manager: G. Caldwell

63'▲K. Doyle←▼J. Aitchison

63'▲E. Francis←▼R. Cole

73'▲J. Bird←▼M. Alli

73'▲D. Mitchell←▼B. Purrington

90+9'▲J. Fitzwater←▼R. Woods

Exeter City substitutes

20Doyle8Francis31Bird7Mitchell5Fitzwater29Carayol37MacDonald19Cox47Richards

Manager: D. Brennan

46'▲D. Collinge←▼J. Rye

86'▲J. Cropper←▼Z. Brunt

90+3'▲J. Okimo←▼R. Glover

90+10'▲J. Grimwood←▼B. Coker

Barnet substitutes

4Collinge32Cropper6Okimo23Grimwood13Bellagambi30Kizzi