Exeter City 1–0 AFC Wimbledon: Result & Stats

Exeter City

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

AFC Wimbledon

J. McMillan 80'

12/9/2025

League One · Round 19St James Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Exeter City41%

×Draw23%

AFC Wimbledon37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Exeter CityExpected goals in this matchAFC Wimbledon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.65

Exeter City

1.75

AFC Wimbledon

1.65

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 11 away

1.55

creates per match

1.10

2.19

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

Exeter City

1.55

AFC Wimbledon

1.10

allows per match

Exeter City

2.19

AFC Wimbledon

1.96

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

+0.17scores more than expected

finishing

Exeter City-0.15scores less

AFC Wimbledon+0.17scores more

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Exeter City ↓

AFC Wimbledon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Exeter City or draw

63%

Exeter City or AFC Wimbledon

77%

Draw or AFC Wimbledon

59%

Winning margin

Exeter City wins by 2+

21%

AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Exeter City 1+ goals

83%

Exeter City 2+ goals

52%

Exeter City 3+ goals

25%

AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals

81%

AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals

49%

AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Exeter City (draw refunded)

53%

AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Exeter City at home — creates 1.55, concedes 2.19 · 10 matches

AFC Wimbledon away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.96 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Exeter City attack 1.55 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.75

AFC Wimbledon attack 1.10 + Exeter City defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Exeter City scores more

41%

level

23%

AFC Wimbledon scores more

37%

Exeter City at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Exeter City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

J. Whitworth

Exeter City · G

7.7

Match Events

44'

Jack Fitzwater

60'

E. Brierley← L. Oakes

68'

Johnly Yfeko

70'

J. Magennis← J. Wareham

71'

L. Woodhouse← J. Yfeko

71'

S. Cox← A. Higgins

76'

C. Maycock← D. Orsi-Dadomo

77'

I. Ogundere← S. Seddon

80'

J. McMillan↳ I. Niskanen

82'

K. McDonald← J. Doyle-Hayes

85'

M. Hippolyte← J. Reeves

85'

R. Nkeng← R. Harbottle

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ExeterAFC

Overview

64%Possession36%

9Total Shots9

6Corners4

7Fouls14

Shots

9Total Shots9

3On Target2

3Off Target2

3Blocked5

7Inside Box5

2Outside Box4

Passing

64%Possession36%

499Total Passes268

393Accurate Passes172

79%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

7Fouls14

2Yellow Cards0

2Offsides3