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Excursionistas vs Dock Sud — Primera C 2026

Excursionistas
Excursionistas
FT
1 – 1
Dock Sud
Dock Sud
11/17/2018Primera CPrimera C · Round 16Estadio de Excursionistas (Capital Federal, Ciudad de Buenos Aires)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Excursionistas43%
×Draw27%
Dock Sud29%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Excursionistas
1.35
Dock Sud
1.06

Excursionistas creates 27% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 75 away

creates per match

Excursionistas
1.59
Dock Sud
1.20

allows per match

Excursionistas
0.92
Dock Sud
1.12

finishing

Excursionistas+0.00on par
Dock Sud+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Excursionistas ↓

Dock Sud →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Excursionistas or draw
71%
Excursionistas or Dock Sud
73%
Draw or Dock Sud
57%

Winning margin

Excursionistas wins by 2+
20%
Dock Sud wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Excursionistas 1+ goals
74%
Excursionistas 2+ goals
39%
Excursionistas 3+ goals
15%
Dock Sud 1+ goals
65%
Dock Sud 2+ goals
29%
Dock Sud 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Excursionistas (draw refunded)
60%
Dock Sud (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Excursionistas at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.92 · 101 matches

Dock Sud away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.12 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Excursionistas attack 1.59 + Dock Sud defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.35

Dock Sud attack 1.20 + Excursionistas defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Excursionistas scores more
43%
level
27%
Dock Sud scores more
29%

Excursionistas at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Excursionistas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera C: Excursionistas 1–1 Dock Sud

Excursionistas and Dock Sud drew 1-1 in Primera C on November 17, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio de Excursionistas (Capital Federal, Ciudad de Buenos Aires).