Dock Sud 2–2 Excursionistas: Result & Stats

Dock Sud

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Excursionistas

T. Villordo 90'

B. Benítez 11'

F. Mesa 69' (OG)

M. Fernández 21'

7/27/2024

Primera B Metropolitana · Clausura - 7Estadio de los Inmigrantes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Dock Sud38%

×Draw28%

Excursionistas33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dock SudExpected goals in this matchExcursionistas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.09

Dock Sud

1.19

Excursionistas

1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 39 home / 46 away

1.15

creates per match

1.24

0.95

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Dock Sud

1.15

Excursionistas

1.24

allows per match

Dock Sud

0.95

Excursionistas

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dock Sud+0.00on par

Excursionistas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dock Sud ↓

Excursionistas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Dock Sud or draw

67%

Dock Sud or Excursionistas

72%

Draw or Excursionistas

62%

Winning margin

Dock Sud wins by 2+

16%

Excursionistas wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Dock Sud 1+ goals

70%

Dock Sud 2+ goals

33%

Dock Sud 3+ goals

12%

Excursionistas 1+ goals

66%

Excursionistas 2+ goals

30%

Excursionistas 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Dock Sud (draw refunded)

53%

Excursionistas (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dock Sud at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.95 · 39 matches

Excursionistas away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.24 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dock Sud attack 1.15 + Excursionistas defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.19

Excursionistas attack 1.24 + Dock Sud defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Dock Sud scores more

38%

level

28%

Excursionistas scores more

33%

Dock Sud at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Dock Sud will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

B. Benítez

21'

M. Fernández

46'

M. Martínez← C. Peralta

69'

F. MesaOwn goal

74'

M. Guzmán← Agustín Ávalos

74'

R. Godoy← J. González

79'

T. Villordo← F. Mesa

82'

D. Pedraza← F. Mateo

82'

E. Torancio← M. Fernández

87'

R. Lobo← A. Velasco

90'

T. Villordo

Dock

Excursionistas

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

🥅

▼

Mesa

Manager: M. Córdoba

74'▲M. Guzmán←▼Agustín Ávalos

74'▲R. Godoy←▼J. González

79'▲T. Villordo←▼F. Mesa

87'▲R. Lobo←▼A. Velasco

Dock Sud substitutes

GuzmánGodoyVillordoLobo

Manager: J. Kopriva

46'▲M. Martínez←▼C. Peralta

82'▲D. Pedraza←▼F. Mateo

82'▲E. Torancio←▼M. Fernández

Excursionistas substitutes

MartínezPedrazaTorancio