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Excursionistas vs Defensores Unidos — Primera C 2026

Excursionistas
Excursionistas
FT
1 – 2
Defensores Unidos
Defensores Unidos
4/1/2018Primera CPrimera C · Round 30Estadio de Excursionistas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Excursionistas24%
×Draw34%
Defensores Unidos42%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Excursionistas
0.68
Defensores Unidos
1.00

Defensores Unidos creates 47% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

creates per match

Excursionistas
0.50
Defensores Unidos
1.00

allows per match

Excursionistas
1.00
Defensores Unidos
0.86

finishing

Excursionistas+0.00on par
Defensores Unidos+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Under
  • Under76
  • Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Excursionistas ↓

Defensores Unidos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–119%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–14%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
50%50%2.5
24%76%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Excursionistas or draw
58%
Excursionistas or Defensores Unidos
66%
Draw or Defensores Unidos
76%

Winning margin

Excursionistas wins by 2+
7%
Defensores Unidos wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Excursionistas 1+ goals
49%
Excursionistas 2+ goals
15%
Excursionistas 3+ goals
3%
Defensores Unidos 1+ goals
63%
Defensores Unidos 2+ goals
26%
Defensores Unidos 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Excursionistas (draw refunded)
37%
Defensores Unidos (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Excursionistas at home — creates 0.50, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Defensores Unidos away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Excursionistas attack 0.50 + Defensores Unidos defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.68

Defensores Unidos attack 1.00 + Excursionistas defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Excursionistas scores more
24%
level
34%
Defensores Unidos scores more
42%

Defensores Unidos at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Defensores Unidos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Excursionistas vs Defensores Unidos

Defensores Unidos beat Excursionistas 2-1 in Primera C on April 1, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio de Excursionistas in Capital Federal, Ciudad de Buenos Aires.