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Excelsior W vs PEC Zwolle W — Eredivisie Women 2018

Excelsior W
Excelsior W
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
PEC Zwolle W
PEC Zwolle W
11/17/2023Eredivisie WomenEredivisie Women · Round 9Sportcomplex Voetbalvereniging DCV

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Excelsior W31%
×Draw22%
PEC Zwolle W48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Excelsior W
1.57
PEC Zwolle W
1.99

PEC Zwolle W creates 27% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 73 away

creates per match

Excelsior W
1.14
PEC Zwolle W
1.16

allows per match

Excelsior W
2.82
PEC Zwolle W
2.01

finishing

Excelsior W+0.00on par
PEC Zwolle W+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Excelsior W ↓

PEC Zwolle W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Excelsior W or draw
52%
Excelsior W or PEC Zwolle W
78%
Draw or PEC Zwolle W
69%

Winning margin

Excelsior W wins by 2+
14%
PEC Zwolle W wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Excelsior W 1+ goals
79%
Excelsior W 2+ goals
46%
Excelsior W 3+ goals
21%
PEC Zwolle W 1+ goals
86%
PEC Zwolle W 2+ goals
59%
PEC Zwolle W 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Excelsior W (draw refunded)
39%
PEC Zwolle W (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Excelsior W at home — creates 1.14, concedes 2.82 · 73 matches

PEC Zwolle W away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.01 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Excelsior W attack 1.14 + PEC Zwolle W defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.57

PEC Zwolle W attack 1.16 + Excelsior W defence 2.82 → ÷2 → 1.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Excelsior W scores more
31%
level
22%
PEC Zwolle W scores more
48%

PEC Zwolle W at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "PEC Zwolle W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Excelsior W vs PEC Zwolle W

Excelsior W and PEC Zwolle W drew 1-1 in Eredivisie Women on November 17, 2023.

The match was played at Sportcomplex Voetbalvereniging DCV in Krimpen aan den IJssel.