Excelsior W 0–2 Ajax W: Result & Stats

Excelsior W

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Ajax W

5/3/2026

Eredivisie Women · Round 20Stadion Woudestein

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Excelsior W14%

×Draw16%

Ajax W70%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Excelsior WExpected goals in this matchAjax W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

2.70

Excelsior W

1.13

Ajax W

2.70

Ajax W creates 139% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 73 away

1.14

creates per match

2.58

2.82

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Excelsior W

1.14

Ajax W

2.58

allows per match

Excelsior W

2.82

Ajax W

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Excelsior W+0.00on par

Ajax W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Excelsior W ↓

Ajax W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–16%

0–28%

0–37%

0–45%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–14%

2–25%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Excelsior W or draw

30%

Excelsior W or Ajax W

84%

Draw or Ajax W

86%

Winning margin

Excelsior W wins by 2+

5%

Ajax W wins by 2+

49%

Team goals

Excelsior W 1+ goals

68%

Excelsior W 2+ goals

31%

Excelsior W 3+ goals

11%

Ajax W 1+ goals

93%

Ajax W 2+ goals

75%

Ajax W 3+ goals

50%

Draw no bet

Excelsior W (draw refunded)

16%

Ajax W (draw refunded)

84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Excelsior W at home — creates 1.14, concedes 2.82 · 73 matches

Ajax W away — creates 2.58, concedes 1.12 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Excelsior W attack 1.14 + Ajax W defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.13

Ajax W attack 2.58 + Excelsior W defence 2.82 → ÷2 → 2.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Excelsior W scores more

14%

level

16%

Ajax W scores more

70%

Ajax W at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Ajax W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff