Excelsior W 0–4 ADO Den Haag W: Result & Stats

Excelsior W

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

ADO Den Haag W

3/9/2025

Eredivisie Women · Round 17Van Donge & De Roo Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Excelsior W24%

×Draw20%

ADO Den Haag W56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Excelsior WExpected goals in this matchADO Den Haag W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

2.21

Excelsior W

1.38

ADO Den Haag W

2.21

ADO Den Haag W creates 60% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 73 away

1.14

creates per match

1.60

2.82

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Excelsior W

1.14

ADO Den Haag W

1.60

allows per match

Excelsior W

2.82

ADO Den Haag W

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Excelsior W+0.00on par

ADO Den Haag W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Excelsior W ↓

ADO Den Haag W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–27%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Excelsior W or draw

44%

Excelsior W or ADO Den Haag W

80%

Draw or ADO Den Haag W

76%

Winning margin

Excelsior W wins by 2+

10%

ADO Den Haag W wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Excelsior W 1+ goals

75%

Excelsior W 2+ goals

40%

Excelsior W 3+ goals

16%

ADO Den Haag W 1+ goals

89%

ADO Den Haag W 2+ goals

65%

ADO Den Haag W 3+ goals

38%

Draw no bet

Excelsior W (draw refunded)

30%

ADO Den Haag W (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Excelsior W at home — creates 1.14, concedes 2.82 · 73 matches

ADO Den Haag W away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.63 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Excelsior W attack 1.14 + ADO Den Haag W defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.38

ADO Den Haag W attack 1.60 + Excelsior W defence 2.82 → ÷2 → 2.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Excelsior W scores more

24%

level

20%

ADO Den Haag W scores more

56%

ADO Den Haag W at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "ADO Den Haag W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff