Excelsior 1–1 Utrecht: Result & Stats | Eredivisie

Excelsior

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Utrecht

S. Horemans 65'

J. Toornstra 63'

1/27/2024

Eredivisie · Round 19Van Donge & De Roo Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

Excelsior40%

×Draw24%

Utrecht36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ExcelsiorExpected goals in this matchUtrecht

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.50

Excelsior

1.59

Utrecht

1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 23 away

1.43

creates per match

1.35

1.66

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Excelsior

1.43

Utrecht

1.35

allows per match

Excelsior

1.66

Utrecht

1.75

-0.22scores less than expected

finishing

+0.43scores more than expected

finishing

Excelsior-0.22scores less

Utrecht+0.43scores more

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Excelsior ↓

Utrecht →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Excelsior or draw

64%

Excelsior or Utrecht

76%

Draw or Utrecht

60%

Winning margin

Excelsior wins by 2+

20%

Utrecht wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Excelsior 1+ goals

80%

Excelsior 2+ goals

47%

Excelsior 3+ goals

21%

Utrecht 1+ goals

78%

Utrecht 2+ goals

44%

Utrecht 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Excelsior (draw refunded)

53%

Utrecht (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Excelsior at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.66 · 24 matches

Utrecht away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.75 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Excelsior attack 1.43 + Utrecht defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.59

Utrecht attack 1.35 + Excelsior defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Excelsior scores more

40%

level

24%

Utrecht scores more

36%

Excelsior at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Excelsior will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

J. Toornstra

Utrecht · M

8.0

Match Events

46'

K. Pierie← A. Zagré

63'

J. Toornstra

65'

S. Horemans↳ C. Driouech

66'

C. Sandra← N. Naujoks

66'

O. Uddenäs← D. Sanches Fernandes

66'

O. Romeny← T. Booth

79'

V. Jensen← J. Toornstra

80'

C. Bozdoğan← R. Flamingo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ExcelsiorUtrecht

Overview

51%Possession49%

9Total Shots16

0.57Expected Goals (xG)1.49

5Corners8

3Fouls5

Shots

9Total Shots16

5On Target3

3Off Target10

1Blocked3

6Inside Box10

3Outside Box6

Passing

51%Possession49%

458Total Passes415

348Accurate Passes324

76%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

3Fouls5

2Offsides1