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Excelsior vs Jong PSV U21 — Eerste Divisie 2018

Excelsior
Excelsior
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Jong PSV U21
Jong PSV U21
5/2/2025Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 37Van Donge & De Roo Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Excelsior53%
×Draw21%
Jong PSV U2126%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Excelsior
2.17
Jong PSV U21
1.49

Excelsior creates 46% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 149 away

creates per match

Excelsior
2.28
Jong PSV U21
1.52

allows per match

Excelsior
1.46
Jong PSV U21
2.06

finishing

Excelsior+0.00on par
Jong PSV U21+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Excelsior ↓

Jong PSV U21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Excelsior or draw
74%
Excelsior or Jong PSV U21
79%
Draw or Jong PSV U21
47%

Winning margin

Excelsior wins by 2+
32%
Jong PSV U21 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Excelsior 1+ goals
89%
Excelsior 2+ goals
64%
Excelsior 3+ goals
36%
Jong PSV U21 1+ goals
77%
Jong PSV U21 2+ goals
44%
Jong PSV U21 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Excelsior (draw refunded)
67%
Jong PSV U21 (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Excelsior at home — creates 2.28, concedes 1.46 · 72 matches

Jong PSV U21 away — creates 1.52, concedes 2.06 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Excelsior attack 2.28 + Jong PSV U21 defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 2.17

Jong PSV U21 attack 1.52 + Excelsior defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Excelsior scores more
53%
level
21%
Jong PSV U21 scores more
26%

Excelsior at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Excelsior will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Excelsior vs Jong PSV U21

Excelsior beat Jong PSV U21 5-0 in Eerste Divisie on May 2, 2025.

The match was played at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion in Rotterdam.