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Excelsior vs FC St. Pauli — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Excelsior
Excelsior
CANC
14:30
FC St. Pauli
FC St. Pauli
1/7/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Excelsior32%
×Draw22%
FC St. Pauli46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Excelsior
1.62
FC St. Pauli
1.95

FC St. Pauli creates 20% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

creates per match

Excelsior
1.67
FC St. Pauli
2.57

allows per match

Excelsior
1.33
FC St. Pauli
1.57

finishing

Excelsior+0.00on par
FC St. Pauli+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Excelsior ↓

FC St. Pauli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Excelsior or draw
54%
Excelsior or FC St. Pauli
78%
Draw or FC St. Pauli
68%

Winning margin

Excelsior wins by 2+
16%
FC St. Pauli wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Excelsior 1+ goals
80%
Excelsior 2+ goals
48%
Excelsior 3+ goals
22%
FC St. Pauli 1+ goals
86%
FC St. Pauli 2+ goals
58%
FC St. Pauli 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Excelsior (draw refunded)
42%
FC St. Pauli (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Excelsior at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

FC St. Pauli away — creates 2.57, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Excelsior attack 1.67 + FC St. Pauli defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.62

FC St. Pauli attack 2.57 + Excelsior defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Excelsior scores more
32%
level
22%
FC St. Pauli scores more
46%

FC St. Pauli at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "FC St. Pauli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Excelsior host FC St. Pauli

January 7, 2024: Excelsior take on FC St. Pauli in Friendlies Clubs. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Excelsior host FC St. Pauli at TBC.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.