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Excelsior Maassluis vs SVV Scheveningen — Tweede Divisie 2019

Excelsior Maassluis
Excelsior Maassluis
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
SVV Scheveningen
SVV Scheveningen
11/4/2023Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 11Sportpark Dijkpolder

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Excelsior Maassluis43%
×Draw25%
SVV Scheveningen31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Excelsior Maassluis
1.49
SVV Scheveningen
1.23

Excelsior Maassluis creates 21% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 83 away

creates per match

Excelsior Maassluis
1.46
SVV Scheveningen
1.12

allows per match

Excelsior Maassluis
1.34
SVV Scheveningen
1.52

finishing

Excelsior Maassluis+0.00on par
SVV Scheveningen+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Excelsior Maassluis ↓

SVV Scheveningen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Excelsior Maassluis or draw
69%
Excelsior Maassluis or SVV Scheveningen
75%
Draw or SVV Scheveningen
57%

Winning margin

Excelsior Maassluis wins by 2+
21%
SVV Scheveningen wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Excelsior Maassluis 1+ goals
77%
Excelsior Maassluis 2+ goals
44%
Excelsior Maassluis 3+ goals
19%
SVV Scheveningen 1+ goals
71%
SVV Scheveningen 2+ goals
35%
SVV Scheveningen 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Excelsior Maassluis (draw refunded)
58%
SVV Scheveningen (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Excelsior Maassluis at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.34 · 104 matches

SVV Scheveningen away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.52 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Excelsior Maassluis attack 1.46 + SVV Scheveningen defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.49

SVV Scheveningen attack 1.12 + Excelsior Maassluis defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Excelsior Maassluis scores more
43%
level
25%
SVV Scheveningen scores more
31%

Excelsior Maassluis at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Excelsior Maassluis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tweede Divisie: Excelsior Maassluis 2–2 SVV Scheveningen

Excelsior Maassluis and SVV Scheveningen drew 2-2 in Tweede Divisie on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark Dijkpolder in Maassluis.