Excelsior Maassluis 1–2 Katwijk: Result & Stats

Excelsior Maassluis

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Katwijk

12/2/2023

Tweede Divisie · Round 15Sportpark Dijkpolder

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Excelsior Maassluis34%

×Draw25%

Katwijk41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Excelsior MaassluisExpected goals in this matchKatwijk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.54

Excelsior Maassluis

1.39

Katwijk

1.54

Katwijk creates 11% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 100 away

1.46

creates per match

1.75

1.34

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Excelsior Maassluis

1.46

Katwijk

1.75

allows per match

Excelsior Maassluis

1.34

Katwijk

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Excelsior Maassluis+0.00on par

Katwijk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Excelsior Maassluis ↓

Katwijk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Excelsior Maassluis or draw

59%

Excelsior Maassluis or Katwijk

75%

Draw or Katwijk

66%

Winning margin

Excelsior Maassluis wins by 2+

16%

Katwijk wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Excelsior Maassluis 1+ goals

75%

Excelsior Maassluis 2+ goals

40%

Excelsior Maassluis 3+ goals

16%

Katwijk 1+ goals

79%

Katwijk 2+ goals

45%

Katwijk 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Excelsior Maassluis (draw refunded)

46%

Katwijk (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Excelsior Maassluis at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.34 · 104 matches

Katwijk away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.32 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Excelsior Maassluis attack 1.46 + Katwijk defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.39

Katwijk attack 1.75 + Excelsior Maassluis defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Excelsior Maassluis scores more

34%

level

25%

Katwijk scores more

41%

Katwijk at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Katwijk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff