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Excelsior Maassluis vs Almere City II — Tweede Divisie 2019

Excelsior Maassluis
Excelsior Maassluis
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Almere City II
Almere City II
3/15/2025Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 26Sportpark Dijkpolder

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Excelsior Maassluis38%
×Draw24%
Almere City II39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Excelsior Maassluis
1.57
Almere City II
1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 104 home / 51 away

creates per match

Excelsior Maassluis
1.46
Almere City II
1.86

allows per match

Excelsior Maassluis
1.34
Almere City II
1.69

finishing

Excelsior Maassluis+0.00on par
Almere City II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Excelsior Maassluis ↓

Almere City II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Excelsior Maassluis or draw
61%
Excelsior Maassluis or Almere City II
76%
Draw or Almere City II
62%

Winning margin

Excelsior Maassluis wins by 2+
18%
Almere City II wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Excelsior Maassluis 1+ goals
79%
Excelsior Maassluis 2+ goals
46%
Excelsior Maassluis 3+ goals
21%
Almere City II 1+ goals
80%
Almere City II 2+ goals
47%
Almere City II 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Excelsior Maassluis (draw refunded)
49%
Almere City II (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Excelsior Maassluis at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.34 · 104 matches

Almere City II away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.69 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Excelsior Maassluis attack 1.46 + Almere City II defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.57

Almere City II attack 1.86 + Excelsior Maassluis defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Excelsior Maassluis scores more
38%
level
24%
Almere City II scores more
39%

Almere City II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Almere City II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Excelsior Maassluis vs Almere City II

Almere City II beat Excelsior Maassluis 2-0 in Tweede Divisie on March 15, 2025.

The match was played at Sportpark Dijkpolder in Maassluis.