Excelsior Grevels 2–8 Red Black Egalité

Excelsior Grevels

2 – 8

Red Black Egalité

9/11/2022

Cup · 1st RoundStade rue de Kuborn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Excelsior Grevels3%

×Draw5%

Red Black Egalité92%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Excelsior GrevelsExpected goals in this matchRed Black Egalité

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

5.63

Excelsior Grevels

1.13

Red Black Egalité

5.63

Red Black Egalité creates 398% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

1.25

creates per match

5.00

6.25

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Excelsior Grevels

1.25

Red Black Egalité

5.00

allows per match

Excelsior Grevels

6.25

Red Black Egalité

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Excelsior Grevels+0.00on par

Red Black Egalité+0.00on par

Total goals

Over95
Under5

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Excelsior Grevels ↓

Red Black Egalité →

0–00%

0–11%

0–23%

0–35%

0–47%

1–00%

1–11%

1–23%

1–36%

1–48%

2–00%

2–11%

2–22%

2–33%

2–45%

3–00%

3–10%

3–21%

3–31%

3–42%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–4 (8%) · grid covers 50% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

99%1%2.5

95%5%3.5

86%14%4.5

71%29%

Double chance

Excelsior Grevels or draw

Excelsior Grevels or Red Black Egalité

95%

Draw or Red Black Egalité

97%

Winning margin

Excelsior Grevels wins by 2+

Red Black Egalité wins by 2+

82%

Team goals

Excelsior Grevels 1+ goals

68%

Excelsior Grevels 2+ goals

31%

Excelsior Grevels 3+ goals

11%

Red Black Egalité 1+ goals

99%

Red Black Egalité 2+ goals

96%

Red Black Egalité 3+ goals

88%

Draw no bet

Excelsior Grevels (draw refunded)

Red Black Egalité (draw refunded)

97%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Excelsior Grevels at home — creates 1.25, concedes 6.25 · 4 matches

Red Black Egalité away — creates 5.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Excelsior Grevels attack 1.25 + Red Black Egalité defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Red Black Egalité attack 5.00 + Excelsior Grevels defence 6.25 → ÷2 → 5.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 92%?"

Excelsior Grevels scores more

level

Red Black Egalité scores more

92%

Red Black Egalité at 92% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 92% does not mean "Red Black Egalité will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff