Excelsior Grevels 0–5 Obercorn: Result & Stats

Excelsior Grevels

0 – 5

Obercorn

9/10/2023

Cup · 1st RoundStade rue de Kuborn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Excelsior Grevels4%

×Draw7%

Obercorn89%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Excelsior GrevelsExpected goals in this matchObercorn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

4.50

Excelsior Grevels

1.00

Obercorn

4.50

Obercorn creates 350% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

1.25

creates per match

2.75

6.25

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Excelsior Grevels

1.25

Obercorn

2.75

allows per match

Excelsior Grevels

6.25

Obercorn

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Excelsior Grevels+0.00on par

Obercorn+0.00on par

Total goals

Over89
Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Excelsior Grevels ↓

Obercorn →

0–00%

0–12%

0–25%

0–37%

0–48%

1–00%

1–12%

1–25%

1–37%

1–48%

2–00%

2–11%

2–22%

2–34%

2–44%

3–00%

3–10%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–4 (8%) · grid covers 64% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

97%3%2.5

89%11%3.5

76%24%4.5

57%43%

Double chance

Excelsior Grevels or draw

11%

Excelsior Grevels or Obercorn

93%

Draw or Obercorn

96%

Winning margin

Excelsior Grevels wins by 2+

Obercorn wins by 2+

76%

Team goals

Excelsior Grevels 1+ goals

63%

Excelsior Grevels 2+ goals

26%

Excelsior Grevels 3+ goals

Obercorn 1+ goals

99%

Obercorn 2+ goals

93%

Obercorn 3+ goals

79%

Draw no bet

Excelsior Grevels (draw refunded)

Obercorn (draw refunded)

96%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Excelsior Grevels at home — creates 1.25, concedes 6.25 · 4 matches

Obercorn away — creates 2.75, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Excelsior Grevels attack 1.25 + Obercorn defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.00

Obercorn attack 2.75 + Excelsior Grevels defence 6.25 → ÷2 → 4.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 89%?"

Excelsior Grevels scores more

level

Obercorn scores more

89%

Obercorn at 89% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 89% does not mean "Obercorn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff