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Excelsior '31 vs ONS Sneek — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

Excelsior '31
Excelsior '31
FT
6 – 1
ONS Sneek
ONS Sneek
11/23/2019Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Zaterdag - 13Sportpark De Koerbelt (Rijssen)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Excelsior '3164%
×Draw17%
ONS Sneek18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Excelsior '31
2.66
ONS Sneek
1.36

Excelsior '31 creates 96% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 12 away

creates per match

Excelsior '31
1.65
ONS Sneek
1.00

allows per match

Excelsior '31
1.73
ONS Sneek
3.67

finishing

Excelsior '31+0.00on par
ONS Sneek+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Excelsior '31 ↓

ONS Sneek →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Excelsior '31 or draw
82%
Excelsior '31 or ONS Sneek
83%
Draw or ONS Sneek
36%

Winning margin

Excelsior '31 wins by 2+
44%
ONS Sneek wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Excelsior '31 1+ goals
93%
Excelsior '31 2+ goals
74%
Excelsior '31 3+ goals
49%
ONS Sneek 1+ goals
74%
ONS Sneek 2+ goals
39%
ONS Sneek 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Excelsior '31 (draw refunded)
78%
ONS Sneek (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Excelsior '31 at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.73 · 83 matches

ONS Sneek away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.67 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Excelsior '31 attack 1.65 + ONS Sneek defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 2.66

ONS Sneek attack 1.00 + Excelsior '31 defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Excelsior '31 scores more
64%
level
17%
ONS Sneek scores more
18%

Excelsior '31 at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Excelsior '31 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Excelsior '31 vs ONS Sneek

Excelsior '31 beat ONS Sneek 6-1 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on November 23, 2019.

The match was played at Sportpark De Koerbelt (Rijssen).