Excelsior '31 2–2 HSV ODIN 59: Result & Stats

Excelsior '31

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

HSV ODIN 59

6/4/2022

Derde Divisie - Saturday · Zaterdag - 34Sportpark De Koerbelt

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Excelsior '3148%

×Draw21%

HSV ODIN 5930%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Excelsior '31Expected goals in this matchHSV ODIN 59

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.58

Excelsior '31

2.04

HSV ODIN 59

1.58

Excelsior '31 creates 29% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 46 away

1.65

creates per match

1.43

1.73

allows per match

2.43

creates per match

Excelsior '31

1.65

HSV ODIN 59

1.43

allows per match

Excelsior '31

1.73

HSV ODIN 59

2.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Excelsior '31+0.00on par

HSV ODIN 59+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Excelsior '31 ↓

HSV ODIN 59 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Excelsior '31 or draw

70%

Excelsior '31 or HSV ODIN 59

79%

Draw or HSV ODIN 59

52%

Winning margin

Excelsior '31 wins by 2+

28%

HSV ODIN 59 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Excelsior '31 1+ goals

87%

Excelsior '31 2+ goals

60%

Excelsior '31 3+ goals

33%

HSV ODIN 59 1+ goals

79%

HSV ODIN 59 2+ goals

47%

HSV ODIN 59 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Excelsior '31 (draw refunded)

62%

HSV ODIN 59 (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Excelsior '31 at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.73 · 83 matches

HSV ODIN 59 away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.43 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Excelsior '31 attack 1.65 + HSV ODIN 59 defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.04

HSV ODIN 59 attack 1.43 + Excelsior '31 defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Excelsior '31 scores more

48%

level

21%

HSV ODIN 59 scores more

30%

Excelsior '31 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Excelsior '31 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff