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EVV vs Hoogland — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

EVV
EVV
CANC
13:30
Hoogland
Hoogland
1/31/2021Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Zondag - 19Sportpark In de Bandert

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

EVV47%
×Draw23%
Hoogland30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

EVV
1.79
Hoogland
1.37

EVV creates 31% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 31 away

creates per match

EVV
1.19
Hoogland
1.26

allows per match

EVV
1.48
Hoogland
2.39

finishing

EVV+0.00on par
Hoogland+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

EVV ↓

Hoogland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

EVV or draw
70%
EVV or Hoogland
77%
Draw or Hoogland
53%

Winning margin

EVV wins by 2+
26%
Hoogland wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

EVV 1+ goals
83%
EVV 2+ goals
53%
EVV 3+ goals
26%
Hoogland 1+ goals
75%
Hoogland 2+ goals
40%
Hoogland 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

EVV (draw refunded)
62%
Hoogland (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

EVV at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.48 · 31 matches

Hoogland away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.39 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

EVV attack 1.19 + Hoogland defence 2.39 → ÷2 → 1.79

Hoogland attack 1.26 + EVV defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

EVV scores more
47%
level
23%
Hoogland scores more
30%

EVV at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "EVV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

EVV vs Hoogland — Match Preview

EVV face Hoogland on January 31, 2021 in this Derde Divisie - Sunday fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

EVV host Hoogland at Sportpark In de Bandert.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.