Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

EVV vs DEM — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

EVV
EVV
FT
1 – 1
DEM
DEM
9/12/2021Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Zondag - 4Sportpark In de Bandert

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

EVV37%
×Draw26%
DEM37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

EVV
1.35
DEM
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 48 away

creates per match

EVV
1.19
DEM
1.23

allows per match

EVV
1.48
DEM
1.52

finishing

EVV+0.00on par
DEM+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

EVV ↓

DEM →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

EVV or draw
63%
EVV or DEM
74%
Draw or DEM
63%

Winning margin

EVV wins by 2+
17%
DEM wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

EVV 1+ goals
74%
EVV 2+ goals
39%
EVV 3+ goals
15%
DEM 1+ goals
74%
DEM 2+ goals
39%
DEM 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

EVV (draw refunded)
50%
DEM (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

EVV at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.48 · 31 matches

DEM away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.52 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

EVV attack 1.19 + DEM defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.35

DEM attack 1.23 + EVV defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

EVV scores more
37%
level
26%
DEM scores more
37%

EVV at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "EVV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

EVV 1 – 1 DEM

EVV and DEM drew 1-1 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on September 12, 2021.

The match was played at Sportpark In de Bandert in Echt-Susteren.