Evesham United 0–3 Cheltenham: Result & Stats

Evesham United

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Cheltenham

C. McCann 90+1', 85', 14'

7/18/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Evesham United19%

×Draw20%

Cheltenham60%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Evesham UnitedExpected goals in this matchCheltenham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

2.15

Evesham United

1.13

Cheltenham

2.15

Cheltenham creates 90% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

1.00

creates per match

2.50

1.80

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Evesham United

1.00

Cheltenham

2.50

allows per match

Evesham United

1.80

Cheltenham

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Evesham United+0.00on par

Cheltenham+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Evesham United ↓

Cheltenham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–29%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Evesham United or draw

40%

Evesham United or Cheltenham

80%

Draw or Cheltenham

81%

Winning margin

Evesham United wins by 2+

7%

Cheltenham wins by 2+

37%

Team goals

Evesham United 1+ goals

68%

Evesham United 2+ goals

31%

Evesham United 3+ goals

11%

Cheltenham 1+ goals

88%

Cheltenham 2+ goals

63%

Cheltenham 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Evesham United (draw refunded)

24%

Cheltenham (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Evesham United at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Cheltenham away — creates 2.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Evesham United attack 1.00 + Cheltenham defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Cheltenham attack 2.50 + Evesham United defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Evesham United scores more

19%

level

20%

Cheltenham scores more

60%

Cheltenham at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Cheltenham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

C. McCann

85'

C. McCann

90+1'

C. McCann

Evesham

Cheltenham

Manager: N. Hunt

Manager: Steve Cotterill