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Everton W vs Yeovil Town W — FA WSL 2018

Everton W
Everton W
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Yeovil Town W
Yeovil Town W
5/9/2018FA WSLFA WSL · FA WSL (Women Super League) - Round 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Everton W57%
×Draw21%
Yeovil Town W22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Everton W
2.08
Yeovil Town W
1.23

Everton W creates 69% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 12 away

creates per match

Everton W
1.25
Yeovil Town W
0.67

allows per match

Everton W
1.79
Yeovil Town W
2.92

finishing

Everton W+0.00on par
Yeovil Town W+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Everton W ↓

Yeovil Town W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Everton W or draw
78%
Everton W or Yeovil Town W
79%
Draw or Yeovil Town W
43%

Winning margin

Everton W wins by 2+
34%
Yeovil Town W wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Everton W 1+ goals
87%
Everton W 2+ goals
61%
Everton W 3+ goals
34%
Yeovil Town W 1+ goals
71%
Yeovil Town W 2+ goals
35%
Yeovil Town W 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Everton W (draw refunded)
72%
Yeovil Town W (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Everton W at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.79 · 84 matches

Yeovil Town W away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Everton W attack 1.25 + Yeovil Town W defence 2.92 → ÷2 → 2.08

Yeovil Town W attack 0.67 + Everton W defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Everton W scores more
57%
level
21%
Yeovil Town W scores more
22%

Everton W at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Everton W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA WSL: Everton W 3–1 Yeovil Town W

Everton W beat Yeovil Town W 3-1 in FA WSL on May 9, 2018.