Everton W 1–0 London Bees W: Result & Stats

Everton W

1 – 0

London Bees W

1/26/2020

FA Women's Cup · 4th RoundHaig Avenue

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Everton W39%

×Draw26%

London Bees W35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Everton WExpected goals in this matchLondon Bees W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.28

Everton W

1.36

London Bees W

1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

1.17

creates per match

1.89

0.67

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Everton W

1.17

London Bees W

1.89

allows per match

Everton W

0.67

London Bees W

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Everton W+0.00on par

London Bees W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Everton W ↓

London Bees W →

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Everton W or draw

65%

Everton W or London Bees W

74%

Draw or London Bees W

61%

Winning margin

Everton W wins by 2+

18%

London Bees W wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Everton W 1+ goals

74%

Everton W 2+ goals

39%

Everton W 3+ goals

16%

London Bees W 1+ goals

72%

London Bees W 2+ goals

37%

London Bees W 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Everton W (draw refunded)

53%

London Bees W (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Everton W at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

London Bees W away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Everton W attack 1.17 + London Bees W defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.36

London Bees W attack 1.89 + Everton W defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

Everton W scores more

39%

level

26%

London Bees W scores more

35%

Everton W at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Everton W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Women's Cup: Everton W 1–0 London Bees W

Everton W beat London Bees W 1-0 in FA Women's Cup on January 26, 2020.

The match was played at Haig Avenue in Southport, Merseyside.

Everton W vs London Bees W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

FA Women's Cup: Everton W 1–0 London Bees W