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Everton W vs Leicester City FC W — FA WSL 2018

Everton W
Everton W
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Leicester City FC W
Leicester City FC W
2/2/2025FA WSLFA WSL · Round 13Walton Hall Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Everton W52%
×Draw23%
Leicester City FC W25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Everton W
1.80
Leicester City FC W
1.19

Everton W creates 51% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 55 away

creates per match

Everton W
1.25
Leicester City FC W
0.58

allows per match

Everton W
1.79
Leicester City FC W
2.36

finishing

Everton W+0.00on par
Leicester City FC W+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Everton W ↓

Leicester City FC W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Everton W or draw
75%
Everton W or Leicester City FC W
77%
Draw or Leicester City FC W
48%

Winning margin

Everton W wins by 2+
29%
Leicester City FC W wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Everton W 1+ goals
83%
Everton W 2+ goals
54%
Everton W 3+ goals
27%
Leicester City FC W 1+ goals
70%
Leicester City FC W 2+ goals
33%
Leicester City FC W 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Everton W (draw refunded)
67%
Leicester City FC W (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Everton W at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.79 · 84 matches

Leicester City FC W away — creates 0.58, concedes 2.36 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Everton W attack 1.25 + Leicester City FC W defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.80

Leicester City FC W attack 0.58 + Everton W defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Everton W scores more
52%
level
23%
Leicester City FC W scores more
25%

Everton W at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Everton W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA WSL: Everton W 4–1 Leicester City FC W

Everton W beat Leicester City FC W 4-1 in FA WSL on February 2, 2025.

The match was played at Walton Hall Park in Liverpool.