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Everton W vs Crystal Palace W — FA WSL 2018

Everton W
Everton W
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Crystal Palace W
Crystal Palace W
3/22/2025FA WSLFA WSL · Round 17Walton Hall Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Everton W55%
×Draw21%
Crystal Palace W25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Everton W
2.16
Crystal Palace W
1.40

Everton W creates 54% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 11 away

creates per match

Everton W
1.23
Crystal Palace W
1.00

allows per match

Everton W
1.80
Crystal Palace W
3.09

finishing

Everton W+0.00on par
Crystal Palace W+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Everton W ↓

Crystal Palace W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Everton W or draw
75%
Everton W or Crystal Palace W
79%
Draw or Crystal Palace W
45%

Winning margin

Everton W wins by 2+
33%
Crystal Palace W wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Everton W 1+ goals
88%
Everton W 2+ goals
63%
Everton W 3+ goals
36%
Crystal Palace W 1+ goals
75%
Crystal Palace W 2+ goals
41%
Crystal Palace W 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Everton W (draw refunded)
69%
Crystal Palace W (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Everton W at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.80 · 83 matches

Crystal Palace W away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Everton W attack 1.23 + Crystal Palace W defence 3.09 → ÷2 → 2.16

Crystal Palace W attack 1.00 + Everton W defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Everton W scores more
55%
level
21%
Crystal Palace W scores more
25%

Everton W at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Everton W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA WSL: Everton W 3–0 Crystal Palace W

Everton W beat Crystal Palace W 3-0 in FA WSL on March 22, 2025.

The match was played at Walton Hall Park in Liverpool.