Everton 0–1 Wolves: Result & Stats | Premier League

Everton

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Wolves

C. Coady 49'

3/13/2022

Premier League · Round 29Goodison Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Everton46%

×Draw26%

Wolves27%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EvertonExpected goals in this matchWolves

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.04

Everton

1.44

Wolves

1.04

Everton creates 38% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 19 away

1.28

creates per match

0.78

1.31

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Everton

1.28

Wolves

0.78

allows per match

Everton

1.31

Wolves

1.59

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

-0.36scores less than expected

finishing

Everton+0.10scores more

Wolves-0.36scores less

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Everton ↓

Wolves →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Everton or draw

73%

Everton or Wolves

74%

Draw or Wolves

54%

Winning margin

Everton wins by 2+

23%

Wolves wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Everton 1+ goals

76%

Everton 2+ goals

42%

Everton 3+ goals

18%

Wolves 1+ goals

65%

Wolves 2+ goals

28%

Wolves 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Everton (draw refunded)

63%

Wolves (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Everton at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.31 · 21 matches

Wolves away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.59 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Everton attack 1.28 + Wolves defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.44

Wolves attack 0.78 + Everton defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Everton scores more

46%

level

26%

Wolves scores more

27%

Everton at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Everton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

C. Coady

Wolves · D

7.9

Match Events

16'

Daniel Podence← Hwang Hee-Chan

49'

C. Coady↳ Rúben Neves

59'

D. Alli← V. Mykolenko

63'

69'

74'

75'

78'

78'

83'

Trincão← L. Dendoncker

84'

Ben Godfrey

88'

Fábio Silva← R. Jiménez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EvertonWolves

Overview

38%Possession62%

7Total Shots14

5Corners2

13Fouls11

Shots

7Total Shots14

2On Target3

5Off Target5

0Blocked6

3Inside Box5

4Outside Box9

Passing

38%Possession62%

356Total Passes597

276Accurate Passes518

78%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls11

4Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

7Offsides0