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Everton vs West Brom — Premier League 2026

Everton
Everton
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
West Brom
West Brom
1/20/2018Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 24Goodison Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Everton47%
×Draw26%
West Brom27%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Everton
1.48
West Brom
1.04

Everton creates 42% more chances

Season form · 199 home / 94 away

creates per match

Everton
1.44
West Brom
0.84

allows per match

Everton
1.24
West Brom
1.51

finishing

Everton+0.00on par
West Brom+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Everton ↓

West Brom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Everton or draw
73%
Everton or West Brom
74%
Draw or West Brom
53%

Winning margin

Everton wins by 2+
24%
West Brom wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Everton 1+ goals
77%
Everton 2+ goals
43%
Everton 3+ goals
19%
West Brom 1+ goals
65%
West Brom 2+ goals
28%
West Brom 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Everton (draw refunded)
64%
West Brom (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Everton at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.24 · 199 matches

West Brom away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.51 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Everton attack 1.44 + West Brom defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.48

West Brom attack 0.84 + Everton defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Everton scores more
47%
level
26%
West Brom scores more
27%

Everton at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Everton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Everton vs West Brom

Everton and West Brom drew 1-1 in Premier League on January 20, 2018.

The match was played at Goodison Park in Liverpool.