Everton 2–2 Tottenham: Result & Stats

Everton

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Tottenham

G. Sigurðsson 62', 31' (pen)

H. Kane 68', 27'

4/16/2021

Premier League · Round 32Goodison Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

Everton42%

×Draw26%

Tottenham32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EvertonExpected goals in this matchTottenham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.23

Everton

1.46

Tottenham

1.23

Everton creates 19% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 37 away

1.29

creates per match

1.17

1.28

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Everton

1.29

Tottenham

1.17

allows per match

Everton

1.28

Tottenham

1.62

-0.03on par

finishing

+0.29scores more than expected

finishing

Everton-0.03on par

Tottenham+0.29scores more

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Everton ↓

Tottenham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Everton or draw

68%

Everton or Tottenham

74%

Draw or Tottenham

58%

Winning margin

Everton wins by 2+

20%

Tottenham wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Everton 1+ goals

77%

Everton 2+ goals

43%

Everton 3+ goals

18%

Tottenham 1+ goals

71%

Tottenham 2+ goals

35%

Tottenham 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Everton (draw refunded)

57%

Tottenham (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Everton at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.28 · 23 matches

Tottenham away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.62 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Everton attack 1.29 + Tottenham defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.46

Tottenham attack 1.17 + Everton defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Everton scores more

42%

level

26%

Tottenham scores more

32%

Everton at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Everton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

G. Sigurðsson

Everton · M

8.9

Match Events

8'

Pierre-Emile Højbjerg

21'

Tom Davies

27'

H. Kane

31'

G. SigurðssonPenalty

61'

S. Coleman← A. Iwobi

62'

G. Sigurðsson↳ S. Coleman

64'

Lucas Moura← Reguilón

64'

E. Lamela← T. Ndombèlé

68'

H. Kane

84'

J. King← T. Davies

90+3'

D. Alli← H. Kane

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EvertonTottenham

Overview

52%Possession48%

18Total Shots12

6Corners3

8Fouls8

Shots

18Total Shots12

7On Target3

8Off Target4

3Blocked5

12Inside Box7

6Outside Box5

Passing

52%Possession48%

502Total Passes450

394Accurate Passes339

78%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

8Fouls8

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides0