Everton 1–1 Tottenham: Result & Stats

Everton

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Tottenham

R. Barkley 5'

E. Lamela 59'

8/13/2016

Premier League · Round 1Goodison Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Everton42%

×Draw26%

Tottenham32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EvertonExpected goals in this matchTottenham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.24

Everton

1.46

Tottenham

1.24

Everton creates 18% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 37 away

1.29

creates per match

1.17

1.31

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Everton

1.29

Tottenham

1.17

allows per match

Everton

1.31

Tottenham

1.62

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

+0.29scores more than expected

finishing

Everton-0.13scores less

Tottenham+0.29scores more

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Everton ↓

Tottenham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Everton or draw

68%

Everton or Tottenham

74%

Draw or Tottenham

58%

Winning margin

Everton wins by 2+

20%

Tottenham wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Everton 1+ goals

77%

Everton 2+ goals

43%

Everton 3+ goals

18%

Tottenham 1+ goals

71%

Tottenham 2+ goals

35%

Tottenham 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Everton (draw refunded)

57%

Tottenham (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Everton at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.31 · 25 matches

Tottenham away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.62 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Everton attack 1.29 + Tottenham defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.46

Tottenham attack 1.17 + Everton defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Everton scores more

42%

level

26%

Tottenham scores more

32%

Everton at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Everton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

P. Jagielka

Everton · D

7.7

Match Events

5'

35'

56'

59'

68'

76'

A. Lennon← K. Mirallas

85'

T. Cleverley← G. Barry

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EvertonTottenham

Overview

42%Possession58%

12Total Shots13

5Corners6

10Fouls14

Shots

12Total Shots13

6On Target4

4Off Target4

2Blocked5

6Inside Box8

6Outside Box5

Passing

42%Possession58%

361Total Passes483

262Accurate Passes384

73%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

10Fouls14

5Offsides0

Premier League: Everton 1–1 Tottenham

Everton and Tottenham drew 1-1 in Premier League on August 13, 2016.

Goals: R. Barkley (5'), E. Lamela (59').

Tottenham controlled possession (58%) and registered 13 shots to 12.

The match was played at Goodison Park in Liverpool.

Everton vs Tottenham — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Premier League: Everton 1–1 Tottenham