Everton 1–2 Southampton: Result & Stats

Everton

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Southampton

A. Onana 39'

J. Ward-Prowse 78', 46'

1/14/2023

Premier League · Round 20Goodison Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Everton49%

×Draw25%

Southampton26%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EvertonExpected goals in this matchSouthampton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.09

Everton

1.60

Southampton

1.09

Everton creates 47% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 8 away

1.29

creates per match

0.90

1.28

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Everton

1.29

Southampton

0.90

allows per match

Everton

1.28

Southampton

1.92

-0.03on par

finishing

-0.27scores less than expected

finishing

Everton-0.03on par

Southampton-0.27scores less

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Everton ↓

Southampton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Everton or draw

74%

Everton or Southampton

75%

Draw or Southampton

51%

Winning margin

Everton wins by 2+

26%

Southampton wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Everton 1+ goals

80%

Everton 2+ goals

47%

Everton 3+ goals

22%

Southampton 1+ goals

66%

Southampton 2+ goals

30%

Southampton 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Everton (draw refunded)

65%

Southampton (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Everton at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.28 · 23 matches

Southampton away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.92 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Everton attack 1.29 + Southampton defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.60

Southampton attack 0.90 + Everton defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Everton scores more

49%

level

25%

Southampton scores more

26%

Everton at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Everton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

J. Ward-Prowse

Southampton · F

9.2

Match Events

14'

Roméo Lavia

39'

A. Onana↳ D. Gray

46'

J. Ward-Prowse↳ C. Adams

61'

A. Armstrong← S. Edozie

61'

C. Alcaraz← R. Lavia

69'

Ibrahima Diallo

69'

A. Gordon← S. Coleman

78'

J. Ward-Prowse

82'

E. Simms← I. Gueye

85'

S. Mara← C. Adams

85'

A. Maitland-Niles← I. Diallo

85'

R. Perraud← M. Elyounoussi

90+2'

Lyanco

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EvertonSouthampton

Overview

52%Possession48%

12Total Shots13

6Corners4

7Fouls18

Shots

12Total Shots13

4On Target5

5Off Target2

3Blocked6

8Inside Box7

4Outside Box6

Passing

52%Possession48%

395Total Passes369

290Accurate Passes261

73%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

7Fouls18

0Yellow Cards3

3Offsides2