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Everton vs Sheffield Utd — Premier League 2026

Everton
Everton
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Sheffield Utd
Sheffield Utd
9/21/2019Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 6Goodison Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Everton52%
×Draw25%
Sheffield Utd23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Everton
1.59
Sheffield Utd
0.97

Everton creates 64% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 10 away

creates per match

Everton
1.20
Sheffield Utd
0.66

allows per match

Everton
1.27
Sheffield Utd
1.98

finishing

Everton-0.06on par
Sheffield Utd+0.04on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Everton ↓

Sheffield Utd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Everton or draw
77%
Everton or Sheffield Utd
75%
Draw or Sheffield Utd
48%

Winning margin

Everton wins by 2+
27%
Sheffield Utd wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Everton 1+ goals
80%
Everton 2+ goals
47%
Everton 3+ goals
21%
Sheffield Utd 1+ goals
62%
Sheffield Utd 2+ goals
25%
Sheffield Utd 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Everton (draw refunded)
69%
Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Everton at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.27 · 35 matches

Sheffield Utd away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.98 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Everton attack 1.20 + Sheffield Utd defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.59

Sheffield Utd attack 0.66 + Everton defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Everton scores more
52%
level
25%
Sheffield Utd scores more
23%

Everton at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Everton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Everton vs Sheffield Utd

Sheffield Utd beat Everton 2-0 in Premier League on September 21, 2019.

The match was played at Goodison Park in Liverpool.