Everton 0–3 Manchester United: Result & Stats

Everton

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Manchester United

W. Rooney 62'

Ander Herrera 22'

M. Schneiderlin 18'

10/17/2015

Premier League · Round 9Goodison Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

Everton40%

×Draw26%

Manchester United34%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EvertonExpected goals in this matchManchester United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.31

Everton

1.43

Manchester United

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 26 away

1.29

creates per match

1.34

1.28

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Everton

1.29

Manchester United

1.34

allows per match

Everton

1.28

Manchester United

1.56

-0.03on par

finishing

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

Everton-0.03on par

Manchester United+0.12scores more

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Everton ↓

Manchester United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Everton or draw

66%

Everton or Manchester United

74%

Draw or Manchester United

60%

Winning margin

Everton wins by 2+

19%

Manchester United wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Everton 1+ goals

76%

Everton 2+ goals

42%

Everton 3+ goals

17%

Manchester United 1+ goals

73%

Manchester United 2+ goals

38%

Manchester United 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Everton (draw refunded)

54%

Manchester United (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Everton at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.28 · 23 matches

Manchester United away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.56 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Everton attack 1.29 + Manchester United defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.43

Manchester United attack 1.34 + Everton defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Everton scores more

40%

level

26%

Manchester United scores more

34%

Everton at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Everton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

Ander Herrera

Manchester United · M

8.5

Match Events

18'

M. Schneiderlin↳ C. Smalling

22'

Séamus Coleman

22'

Ander Herrera↳ M. Rojo

46'

A. Koné← S. Naismith

46'

J. Lingard← Mata

50'

Bastian Schweinsteiger

52'

Marcos Rojo

62'

W. Rooney↳ Ander Herrera

70'

Romelu Lukaku

73'

Deulofeu← A. Lennon

74'

M. Carrick← B. Schweinsteiger

81'

M. Fellaini← Ander Herrera

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EvertonManchester

Overview

47%Possession53%

12Total Shots10

5Corners3

0Fouls0

Shots

12Total Shots10

3On Target7

6Off Target2

3Blocked1

7Inside Box7

5Outside Box3

Passing

47%Possession53%

458Total Passes524

370Accurate Passes448

81%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

0Fouls0

2Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1