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Everton vs Manchester City — Premier League 2026

Everton
Everton
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Manchester City
Manchester City
1/15/2017Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 21Goodison Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Everton30%
×Draw25%
Manchester City45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Everton
1.25
Manchester City
1.58

Manchester City creates 26% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 36 away

creates per match

Everton
1.29
Manchester City
1.84

allows per match

Everton
1.31
Manchester City
1.21

finishing

Everton-0.13scores less
Manchester City-0.23scores less

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Everton ↓

Manchester City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Everton or draw
55%
Everton or Manchester City
75%
Draw or Manchester City
70%

Winning margin

Everton wins by 2+
13%
Manchester City wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Everton 1+ goals
71%
Everton 2+ goals
36%
Everton 3+ goals
13%
Manchester City 1+ goals
79%
Manchester City 2+ goals
47%
Manchester City 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Everton (draw refunded)
40%
Manchester City (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Everton at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.31 · 25 matches

Manchester City away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.21 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Everton attack 1.29 + Manchester City defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.25

Manchester City attack 1.84 + Everton defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Everton scores more
30%
level
25%
Manchester City scores more
45%

Manchester City at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Manchester City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Everton vs Manchester City

Everton beat Manchester City 4-0 in Premier League on January 15, 2017.

The match was played at Goodison Park in Liverpool.