Everton 0–2 Manchester City: Result & Stats

Everton

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Manchester City

S. Nasri 88'

A. Kolarov 60'

8/23/2015

Premier League · Round 3Goodison Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

Everton31%

×Draw25%

Manchester City44%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EvertonExpected goals in this matchManchester City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.52

Everton

1.25

Manchester City

1.52

Manchester City creates 22% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 31 away

1.29

creates per match

1.76

1.28

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Everton

1.29

Manchester City

1.76

allows per match

Everton

1.28

Manchester City

1.21

-0.03on par

finishing

-0.21scores less than expected

finishing

Everton-0.03on par

Manchester City-0.21scores less

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Everton ↓

Manchester City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Everton or draw

56%

Everton or Manchester City

75%

Draw or Manchester City

69%

Winning margin

Everton wins by 2+

13%

Manchester City wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Everton 1+ goals

71%

Everton 2+ goals

36%

Everton 3+ goals

13%

Manchester City 1+ goals

78%

Manchester City 2+ goals

45%

Manchester City 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Everton (draw refunded)

42%

Manchester City (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Everton at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.28 · 23 matches

Manchester City away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.21 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Everton attack 1.29 + Manchester City defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.25

Manchester City attack 1.76 + Everton defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Everton scores more

31%

level

25%

Manchester City scores more

44%

Manchester City at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Manchester City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

42

Y. Touré

Manchester City · M

7.9

Match Events

42'

Eliaquim Mangala

45'

Fernandinho

45+2'

T. Browning← B. Galloway

60'

A. Kolarov↳ R. Sterling

64'

S. Naismith← A. Koné

76'

S. Nasri← R. Sterling

81'

W. Bony← S. Agüero

86'

Samir Nasri

86'

Deulofeu← T. Cleverley

88'

S. Nasri↳ Y. Touré

90'

F. Delph← David Silva

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EvertonManchester

Overview

45%Possession55%

10Total Shots16

8Corners7

0Fouls0

Shots

10Total Shots16

1On Target9

5Off Target3

4Blocked4

5Inside Box9

5Outside Box7

Passing

45%Possession55%

408Total Passes487

334Accurate Passes414

82%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

7Saves1

Discipline

0Fouls0

0Yellow Cards3

3Offsides2