Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Everton vs Manchester City — Premier League 2026

Everton
Everton
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Manchester City
Manchester City
S. Naismith 78'
Fernandinho 74'
1/10/2015Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 21Goodison Park (Liverpool)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

Everton31%
×Draw25%
Manchester City44%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Everton
1.25
Manchester City
1.52

Manchester City creates 22% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 31 away

creates per match

Everton
1.29
Manchester City
1.76

allows per match

Everton
1.28
Manchester City
1.21

finishing

Everton-0.03on par
Manchester City-0.21scores less

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Everton ↓

Manchester City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Everton or draw
56%
Everton or Manchester City
75%
Draw or Manchester City
69%

Winning margin

Everton wins by 2+
13%
Manchester City wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Everton 1+ goals
71%
Everton 2+ goals
36%
Everton 3+ goals
13%
Manchester City 1+ goals
78%
Manchester City 2+ goals
45%
Manchester City 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Everton (draw refunded)
42%
Manchester City (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Everton at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.28 · 23 matches

Manchester City away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.21 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Everton attack 1.29 + Manchester City defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.25

Manchester City attack 1.76 + Everton defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Everton scores more
31%
level
25%
Manchester City scores more
44%

Manchester City at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Manchester City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

50'
Eliaquim Mangala
63'
John Stones
67'
S. Agüero← S. Jovetić
69'
Fernandinho
74'
Fernandinho
77'
K. Mirallas← A. McGeady
78'
S. Naismith↳ L. Baines
82'
F. Lampard← Fernandinho
90+2'
A. Kolarov← S. Nasri

Possession

40%Everton

Statistics

EvertonManchester
Overview
40%Possession60%
4Corners9
10Fouls11
Shots
6On Target4
2Off Target10
Passing
40%Possession60%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
10Fouls11
1Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Everton vs Manchester City

Everton and Manchester City drew 1-1 in Premier League on January 10, 2015.

Goals: Fernandinho (74'), S. Naismith (78').

Manchester City dominated possession with 60% of the ball.

The match was played at Goodison Park (Liverpool).