Everton La Plata 1–1 Barrancas UMET: Result & Stats

Everton La Plata

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Barrancas UMET

3/23/2024

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Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Everton La Plata34%

×Draw30%

Barrancas UMET35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Everton La PlataExpected goals in this matchBarrancas UMET

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

1.04

Everton La Plata

1.02

Barrancas UMET

1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 22 away

1.00

creates per match

0.95

1.14

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Everton La Plata

1.00

Barrancas UMET

0.95

allows per match

Everton La Plata

1.14

Barrancas UMET

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Everton La Plata+0.00on par

Barrancas UMET+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Everton La Plata ↓

Barrancas UMET →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–113%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Everton La Plata or draw

65%

Everton La Plata or Barrancas UMET

70%

Draw or Barrancas UMET

66%

Winning margin

Everton La Plata wins by 2+

13%

Barrancas UMET wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Everton La Plata 1+ goals

64%

Everton La Plata 2+ goals

27%

Everton La Plata 3+ goals

8%

Barrancas UMET 1+ goals

65%

Barrancas UMET 2+ goals

28%

Barrancas UMET 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Everton La Plata (draw refunded)

49%

Barrancas UMET (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Everton La Plata at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.14 · 22 matches

Barrancas UMET away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.05 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Everton La Plata attack 1.00 + Barrancas UMET defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.02

Barrancas UMET attack 0.95 + Everton La Plata defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Everton La Plata scores more

34%

level

30%

Barrancas UMET scores more

35%

Barrancas UMET at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Barrancas UMET will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff