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Barrancas UMET vs Everton La Plata — Torneo Promocional Amateur 2026

Barrancas UMET
Barrancas UMET
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Everton La Plata
Everton La Plata
8/16/2025Torneo Promocional AmateurTorneo Promocional Amateur · Round 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Barrancas UMET36%
×Draw31%
Everton La Plata33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barrancas UMET
1.02
Everton La Plata
0.95

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 22 away

creates per match

Barrancas UMET
0.91
Everton La Plata
0.95

allows per match

Barrancas UMET
0.95
Everton La Plata
1.14

finishing

Barrancas UMET+0.00on par
Everton La Plata+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barrancas UMET ↓

Everton La Plata →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Barrancas UMET or draw
67%
Barrancas UMET or Everton La Plata
69%
Draw or Everton La Plata
64%

Winning margin

Barrancas UMET wins by 2+
14%
Everton La Plata wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Barrancas UMET 1+ goals
64%
Barrancas UMET 2+ goals
27%
Barrancas UMET 3+ goals
8%
Everton La Plata 1+ goals
61%
Everton La Plata 2+ goals
25%
Everton La Plata 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Barrancas UMET (draw refunded)
53%
Everton La Plata (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barrancas UMET at home — creates 0.91, concedes 0.95 · 22 matches

Everton La Plata away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.14 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barrancas UMET attack 0.91 + Everton La Plata defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.02

Everton La Plata attack 0.95 + Barrancas UMET defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Barrancas UMET scores more
36%
level
31%
Everton La Plata scores more
33%

Barrancas UMET at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Barrancas UMET will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Barrancas UMET vs Everton La Plata

Barrancas UMET beat Everton La Plata 1-0 in Torneo Promocional Amateur on August 16, 2025.