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Everton de Vina vs U. Catolica — Primera División 2018

Everton de Vina
Everton de Vina
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
U. Catolica
U. Catolica
10/19/2025Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 24Estadio Sausalito

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 128+ matches

Everton de Vina34%
×Draw27%
U. Catolica39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Everton de Vina
1.17
U. Catolica
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 128 home / 129 away

creates per match

Everton de Vina
1.16
U. Catolica
1.50

allows per match

Everton de Vina
1.03
U. Catolica
1.19

finishing

Everton de Vina+0.00on par
U. Catolica+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Everton de Vina ↓

U. Catolica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Everton de Vina or draw
61%
Everton de Vina or U. Catolica
73%
Draw or U. Catolica
66%

Winning margin

Everton de Vina wins by 2+
14%
U. Catolica wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Everton de Vina 1+ goals
69%
Everton de Vina 2+ goals
33%
Everton de Vina 3+ goals
11%
U. Catolica 1+ goals
72%
U. Catolica 2+ goals
36%
U. Catolica 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Everton de Vina (draw refunded)
47%
U. Catolica (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Everton de Vina at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.03 · 128 matches

U. Catolica away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.19 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Everton de Vina attack 1.16 + U. Catolica defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.17

U. Catolica attack 1.50 + Everton de Vina defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Everton de Vina scores more
34%
level
27%
U. Catolica scores more
39%

U. Catolica at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "U. Catolica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Everton de Vina 0–3 U. Catolica

U. Catolica beat Everton de Vina 3-0 in Primera División on October 19, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Sausalito in Vina del Mar.