Everton de Vina 1–0 Nublense: Result & Stats

Everton de Vina

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Nublense

M. Campos 56'

3/11/2023

Primera División · Round 8Estadio Sausalito

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Everton de Vina49%

×Draw24%

Nublense27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Everton de VinaExpected goals in this matchNublense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.18

Everton de Vina

1.68

Nublense

1.18

Everton de Vina creates 42% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 11 away

1.57

creates per match

1.30

1.06

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Everton de Vina

1.57

Nublense

1.30

allows per match

Everton de Vina

1.06

Nublense

1.78

-0.28scores less than expected

finishing

-0.39scores less than expected

finishing

Everton de Vina-0.28scores less

Nublense-0.39scores less

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Everton de Vina ↓

Nublense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Everton de Vina or draw

73%

Everton de Vina or Nublense

76%

Draw or Nublense

51%

Winning margin

Everton de Vina wins by 2+

26%

Nublense wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Everton de Vina 1+ goals

81%

Everton de Vina 2+ goals

50%

Everton de Vina 3+ goals

24%

Nublense 1+ goals

69%

Nublense 2+ goals

33%

Nublense 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Everton de Vina (draw refunded)

65%

Nublense (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Everton de Vina at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.06 · 7 matches

Nublense away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.78 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Everton de Vina attack 1.57 + Nublense defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.68

Nublense attack 1.30 + Everton de Vina defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Everton de Vina scores more

49%

level

24%

Nublense scores more

27%

Everton de Vina at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Everton de Vina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

N. Pérez

Nublense · G

8.6

Match Events

28'

Lorenzo Reyes

55'

J. Cuevas← L. Montes

56'

M. Campos↳ L. Pastrán

62'

Álvaro Madrid

65'

B. Oyarzo← P. Aránguiz

65'

A. Valdés← A. Vilches

69'

S. Sáez← L. Pastrán

70'

R. Cisterna← M. Rivera

76'

B. Soto← M. Campos

83'

B. Provoste← J. Henríquez

90+3'

90+1'

90+4'

90+2'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EvertonNublense

Overview

45%Possession55%

25Total Shots7

3Corners2

20Fouls12

Shots

25Total Shots7

11On Target1

8Off Target2

6Blocked4

15Inside Box6

10Outside Box1

Passing

45%Possession55%

375Total Passes470

272Accurate Passes366

73%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

1Saves10

Discipline

20Fouls12

3Yellow Cards3

Primera División: Everton de Vina 1–0 Nublense

Everton de Vina beat Nublense 1-0 in Primera División on March 11, 2023.

Goals: M. Campos (56').

Nublense controlled possession (55%) and registered 7 shots to 25.

The match was played at Estadio Sausalito in Viña del Mar.

Everton de Vina vs Nublense — Primera División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Primera División: Everton de Vina 1–0 Nublense