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Europa II vs Sabadell II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Europa II
Europa II
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Sabadell II
Sabadell II
10/6/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 5Camp Municipal de Futbol Nou Sardenya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Europa II39%
×Draw24%
Sabadell II37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Europa II
1.52
Sabadell II
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 33 home / 17 away

creates per match

Europa II
1.21
Sabadell II
1.47

allows per match

Europa II
1.48
Sabadell II
1.82

finishing

Europa II+0.00on par
Sabadell II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Europa II ↓

Sabadell II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Europa II or draw
63%
Europa II or Sabadell II
76%
Draw or Sabadell II
61%

Winning margin

Europa II wins by 2+
19%
Sabadell II wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Europa II 1+ goals
78%
Europa II 2+ goals
45%
Europa II 3+ goals
20%
Sabadell II 1+ goals
77%
Sabadell II 2+ goals
43%
Sabadell II 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Europa II (draw refunded)
51%
Sabadell II (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Europa II at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.48 · 33 matches

Sabadell II away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Europa II attack 1.21 + Sabadell II defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.52

Sabadell II attack 1.47 + Europa II defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Europa II scores more
39%
level
24%
Sabadell II scores more
37%

Europa II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Europa II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Europa II 2–2 Sabadell II

Europa II and Sabadell II drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on October 6, 2024.

The match was played at Camp Municipal de Futbol Nou Sardenya in Barcelona.