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Europa II vs L'Hospitalet — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Europa II
Europa II
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
L'Hospitalet
L'Hospitalet
J. Serra 90'
I. Quer 54'
F. Ribeiro 2'
3/15/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 26Camp Municipal de Futbol Nou Sardenya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Europa II31%
×Draw25%
L'Hospitalet43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Europa II
1.24
L'Hospitalet
1.50

L'Hospitalet creates 21% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 95 away

creates per match

Europa II
1.21
L'Hospitalet
1.51

allows per match

Europa II
1.48
L'Hospitalet
1.27

finishing

Europa II+0.00on par
L'Hospitalet+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Europa II ↓

L'Hospitalet →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Europa II or draw
57%
Europa II or L'Hospitalet
75%
Draw or L'Hospitalet
69%

Winning margin

Europa II wins by 2+
13%
L'Hospitalet wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Europa II 1+ goals
71%
Europa II 2+ goals
35%
Europa II 3+ goals
13%
L'Hospitalet 1+ goals
78%
L'Hospitalet 2+ goals
44%
L'Hospitalet 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Europa II (draw refunded)
42%
L'Hospitalet (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Europa II at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.48 · 33 matches

L'Hospitalet away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.27 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Europa II attack 1.21 + L'Hospitalet defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.24

L'Hospitalet attack 1.51 + Europa II defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Europa II scores more
31%
level
25%
L'Hospitalet scores more
43%

L'Hospitalet at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "L'Hospitalet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
F. Ribeiro
54'
I. Quer
90'
J. Serra
Europa
L'Hospitalet
Jonathan Ruiz
Manager: Jonathan Ruiz
Jaume Delgado
Manager: Jaume Delgado

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Europa II 0–3 L'Hospitalet

L'Hospitalet beat Europa II 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on March 15, 2026.

Goals: F. Ribeiro (2'), I. Quer (54'), J. Serra (90').

The match was played at Camp Municipal de Futbol Nou Sardenya in Barcelona.