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Europa Fc vs Vilafranca — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Europa Fc
Europa Fc
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Vilafranca
Vilafranca
1/19/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 20Camp Municipal de Futbol Nou Sardenya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Europa Fc58%
×Draw23%
Vilafranca19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Europa Fc
1.81
Vilafranca
0.94

Europa Fc creates 93% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 74 away

creates per match

Europa Fc
2.02
Vilafranca
1.12

allows per match

Europa Fc
0.76
Vilafranca
1.59

finishing

Europa Fc+0.00on par
Vilafranca+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Europa Fc ↓

Vilafranca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Europa Fc or draw
81%
Europa Fc or Vilafranca
77%
Draw or Vilafranca
42%

Winning margin

Europa Fc wins by 2+
33%
Vilafranca wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Europa Fc 1+ goals
84%
Europa Fc 2+ goals
54%
Europa Fc 3+ goals
27%
Vilafranca 1+ goals
61%
Vilafranca 2+ goals
24%
Vilafranca 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Europa Fc (draw refunded)
75%
Vilafranca (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Europa Fc at home — creates 2.02, concedes 0.76 · 42 matches

Vilafranca away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.59 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Europa Fc attack 2.02 + Vilafranca defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.81

Vilafranca attack 1.12 + Europa Fc defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Europa Fc scores more
58%
level
23%
Vilafranca scores more
19%

Europa Fc at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Europa Fc will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Europa Fc vs Vilafranca

Europa Fc beat Vilafranca 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on January 19, 2020.

The match was played at Camp Municipal de Futbol Nou Sardenya in Barcelona.